Saturday, June 04, 2005

Was Soros In US 2004 Politics To Protect Short Dollar Position?

The EU seems to be falling apart. It's going to be rewarding to watch Chriac and Schroeder fall on their sword and be humiliated as the EU continues to spiral down. Blair appears to have already jumped off the sinking boat and will watch with us as the French and German leaders become entombed in failure.

EU Collapse

I started thinking about one of my other least favorite people as I have been reading about the EU collapse. Who? Why George Soros of course. The billionaire investor that is a currency hedge investor and destroyed several European economies over the past twenty years. Soros has been bullish on the "euro" vs. the "dollar" since 2003. I'm not sure but with the French non vote coming as a pretty late and dramatic surprise, I'm thinking that Soros was still holding a ton of euro. I don't know if he started selling after the non vote in France, but I doubt it because most thought the EU economic partnership and the euro will still be ongoing even with the non vote. That's not the case any longer.


why Soros

is buying

How great will it be if Blair and the British prompt the complete collapse of the EU and the tanking of the euro while Soros is up to his eye balls holding the euro. It's could take Soros out completely. Now that's what I call an ally. But after what Soros did to the pound in 1992 I'm sure the Brits would enjoy that irony as well. That appears to be what Blair is about to do

sweet revenge UK style

I started wondering if Soros' investment positions might tell us something about why he got involved in the 2004 US Presidential election. At the risk of getting caught up in the "deepthroat" climate of today, I wonder if the clue"follow the money" might not shed some light on why Soros became involved in the US election. Why do I say this? Well Soros is betting on oil and oil producing countries switching to euro vs. dollars. That is the baseline for his short strategy on the dollar.

Follow the

oil money

So what would cause oil producing countries to switch from the euro to dollars, and run counter to the Soros investment model? Well how about American liberation of Iraq, and then widespread democratic movements and gains in the Middle East? Yes that would tie oil producing countries soundly to the American dollar. America seen as the hero liberator by the entire Middle East would be devastating to an investor who was counting on a status quo Middle East political climate that shifted investment from the dollar to the euro.

America's face and presence in the Afghanistan liberation and Afghanistan being a neighbor to the former Soviet oil producing satellites also must have been an unsettling prospect for an investor like Soros who was short on the dollar. A core baseline for the Soros dollar short strategy was that Russia and Russian satellites were moving to the euro vs. the dollar. Liberation of Afghanistan and a spreading democratic movement in that theater would cause a huge increase in dollar buying by those countries. I think the Soros decision to become involved in the 2004 election was decided by the liberation of Afghanistan and intensified after the Iraq liberation. The strategy for his position was unraveling and putting him in a very vulnerable state. He had to do something and getting Bush out would have to the be the first step and most important step of all.

It's a theory only of course, however, I think there are logical reasons to support "following the money" on the Soros euro vs. dollar investment position. It might tell us a great deal why George Soros became so heavily involved in the 2004 election and why he spent so much money. It was a second tier investment to support his primary investment in the euro.

Why would a man who brought so much misery to so many people over the years by destroying their investments and financial positions decide to jump into politics in 2004? Bush and his agenda had to be removed in order for the Soros strategy to continue on plan, I say. Democracy in the Middle East and the former Soviet satellite oil producing countries would bury the euro over dollar strategy. I think that Soros got involved in the 2004 election because of monetary and investment reasons, not because of political convictions. Time will tell and it will be interesting to see if Soros starts buying the greenback and moving his position over. If he is in the dollar, I'm hedging my bet that he will not be so anti-American during the next election, regardless of the candidates.

I have no facts of this being the case of course. It's simply a theory based on the facts I have read. One I think has more than slight rational however. If you were drawing up a list of countries to become politically involved in to reform, every other country in the world would top the US. So why did Soros pick the US for his maiden political launch, "MONEY" I speculate................................