Best Deer Rifle

It's almost deer season and this year it's also probably time for a new rifle. That's a good thing but also a difficult thing. I have hunted with a 30.06 Remington for the past 4 years and I like the rifle. I kill a deer pretty much every year with it and have not found a shot it's not capable of making. The past few years I have hunted with thick woods to the south of my stand and open field and wooded fence lines leading to my stand to the north. Great spot with lots of deer and the old 30.06 had killed all but one deer I've pulled the trigger on.......

I'm adding a much more open hunting property this year. It's in northern Missouri on the Iowa line and is farm land that has pockets of woods with lots of distinct tree lines, again leading to my stands. Big-Big deer on the property........The shots could be longer than the 50-100 yards I've usually had so I want to do a full evaluation on the new deer rifle purchase. Here is what I'm considering:

260 - 7mm-08 - 270 - 280 - 308 and of course a new 30.06.................................

I like the idea of an equally fast and even flater shooting cartridge in the smaller caliber rifles so that is why I'm looking down the range. I don't hunt elk or moose and probably never will so I'm buying a deer rifle. If I do hunt elk or moose, I'll take my old 30.06 on the hunt............One of the reasons I like my 30.06 is that it can cut through cover to kill the deer, regardless of what the experts say about there being no brush-busters I've have killed one in that manner, which was the only one I asked the 30.06 to take in such conditions. I don't have an issue with the 30.06 recoil but if I can get better results with less kick, well sign me up. Here is my top three if I move off the 30.06:

#

1: 7mm-08: sounds like the flat shooting fast shot I'm looking for.............

#2: 308: basically the same power as the 30.06 with a flatter more accurate flight................

#3: 270: well everyone who knows someone who has one has heard it's the moon..............

It's that time of year to talk about what the best deer rifle is. Any thoughts.............caliber & model required........................

Willie "Weed Man" Nelson to Endorse Claire McCaskill

The Missouri Senate race had an interesting story break the other day. Democrat candidate and current state Auditor Claire McCaskill might have a drug story breaking about her as the race begins in earnest. You can watch the video from a Missouri TV station's report over at Red State..............


Willie Nelson is in STL tonight and McCaskill is suppose to hold a news conference with Nelson prior to his show where he will reported endorse her candidacy, per the Post Dispatch Blog. Maybe it's just me but when a possible drug scandal could be breaking, as a candidate do you really want to have a public function with Weed Man Willie endorsing you?

Judge Diggs ACLU Before Ruling Against NSA

The ruling by US District Judge Anna Diggs against the NSA looks like an inside job by the ACLU. An organization that Diggs serves as Secretary & Trustee, has been feeding the Michigan ACLU cash. Per Chron Watch:

Judicial Watch, the public interest group that investigates and prosecutes government corruption and judicial abuse, announced today that Judge Anna Diggs Taylor, who last week ruled the government’s warrantless wiretapping program unconstitutional, serves as a Secretary and Trustee for a foundation that donated funds to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Michigan, a plaintiff in the case ACLU et al. v. National Security Agency. Judicial Watch discovered the potential conflict of interest after reviewing Judge Diggs Taylor’s financial disclosure statements.....................According to her 2003 and 2004 financial disclosure statements, Judge Diggs Taylor served as Secretary and Trustee for the Community Foundation for Southeastern Michigan (CFSEM). She was reelected to this position in June 2005. The official CFSEM website states that the foundation made a “recent grant” of $45,000 over two years to the ACLU of Michigan, a plaintiff in the wiretapping case. Judge Diggs Taylor sided with the ACLU of Michigan in her recent decision...............

Unbelievable...............Well actually it's not all that unbelievable, the hard left has completely left any shred of objective and moderate standing behind in their sprint to become totally unhinged. Just the latest example of the hard left falling off the floor to a new low point............................

Hat-tip Wizbang who has a good post going on the subject.........

Jim @ Gateway Pundit is leading the blog reporting on this one, check it out.....................

Draw With Hezbollah = Israeli Defeat

The latest on the Israel - Hezbollah war is gloomy news indeed for Israel, per Fox News:

In a nation mythologized for decisive military victories over Arab foes, the stalemate after a 34-day war in Lebanon has surprised many........

It should do a whole lot more than surprise the Israelis that the military performed so poorly in this war. That is the reaction from the rest of the world, how could they execute this war so poorly?

the wartime solidarity crumbled after Israel agreed to pull its army from south Lebanon without crushing Hezbollah or rescuing the captured soldiers..........

Israel was given the green light to crush Hezbollah by the world but instead came up with a draw............A draw in this battle equals an Israeli defeat regardless of how blindly pro-Israeli pundits frame it...................

Military experts and commentators have criticized the army for relying too heavily on air power and delaying the start of ground action for too long. They say the army underestimated Hezbollah, and that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert set an unrealistic goal by pledging to destroy the guerrilla group.

It was exactly that, poor leadership and a really bad military plan, to achieve the goal that Israel stated it was committed achieving and could achieve...........It did not achieve the goal but rather a draw which again is a defeat that only Israel can be held accountable for.....................

Others blogging about the Israel - Hezbollah cease fire:

Captains Quarters: The french, well french-out..............

Blogging Break - Time Well Spent

I have not blogged at all this past week. Main reason is once the JonBenet story hit, it engulfed the whole news cycle, completely.................

I thought the coverage 10 years ago was way too much and way over done. After it resurfaced this week and took over again, I said the hell with it, and started watching OLN & Home & Garden network...................

It was a good week to take a break and I'm glad I did........

UN Cease Fire Approved - Will It Work?

The UN Security Council has approved the Lebanese - Israeli cease fire draft resolution per Fox News:

The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution Friday that calls for an end to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and authorizes the deployment of 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers to help Lebanese troops take control of south Lebanon as Israel withdraws.

So, what exactly does the resolution call for? You can review the outline in complete (here) and form your own opinion. For me here are the main and critical points of the resolution:

PP2: Expressing its utmost concern at the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel since Hezbollah's attack on Israel on 12 July 2006, which has already caused hundreds of deaths and injuries on both sides, extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons,

(I think the verbiage that accurately reflects that Hezbollah attacked Israel is important. Hezbollah was the aggressor and started this war and the resolution accurately reflects that.)

PP3: ..................the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers,

(This resolution will not see light, will be DOA unless that occurs. It is square one for everything else within the resolution to become active.)

PP4: Mindful of the sensitivity of the issue of prisoners and encouraging the efforts aimed at urgently settling the issue of the Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel,

(encouraging is less-strong than urgently, so it is has a lower holding than the Israeli soldier release. It does however put it on the board and again "encourage" movement that way.............)

PP5. Welcoming the efforts of the Lebanese Prime Minister and the commitment of the government of Lebanon, in its seven-point plan, to extend its authority over its territory, through its own legitimate armed forces, such that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon, welcoming also its commitment to a UN force that is supplemented and enhanced in numbers, equipment, mandate and scope of operation, and bearing in mind its request in this plan for an immediate withdrawal of the Israeli forces from Southern Lebanon,

(This is the most important element in conjunction with PP8 (UN Forces) of the resolution I think. Lebanon extending it's authority over it's territory and disarming the "zone" is the right answer, but their inability to do exactly that after all is the whole reason this war occurred. It is the best and right solution, but only if the Lebanese's government and military is capable of performing the task. Most think they are not, so it is also the most likely factor for full-failure with this resolution as we move forward. I buy a Powerball ticket (1) every week and know the chances of winning are astronomically against it happening. I'm hopeful, but I'm also realistic that it's very highly unlikely to occur. That is my identical position on the Lebanese army being able to successfully fulfill their role and see this resolution to a successful end)

PP8: Welcoming the unanimous decision by the government of Lebanon on 7 August 2006 to deploy a Lebanese armed force of 15,000 troops in South Lebanon as the Israeli army withdraws behind the Blue Line and to request the assistance of additional forces from UNIFIL as needed, to facilitate the entry of the Lebanese armed forces into the region and to restate its intention to strengthen the Lebanese armed forces with material as needed to enable it to perform its duties,

(I have no faith that the Lebanese government or military has the will or the ability to defang Hezbollah. Adding a UN force to the mix only marginally increases my optimism that disarming Hezbollah will occur under the resolution. Without the UN forces the odds of it occurring are 1,000,000 to 1, and with the UN force it closes to 999,999 to 1..................)

OP3: Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon;

(Calls for 1559 to be enforced and again the failure of it being enforced is the reason for this latest war.)

OP14: Calls upon the Government of Lebanon to secure its borders and other entry points to prevent the entry in Lebanon without its consent of arms or related materiel and requests UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11 to assist the Government of Lebanon at its request;

(other entry points is Syria and closing the arms stream from Syria is the key from a logistical perspective.)

OP18. Stresses the importance of, and the need to achieve, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East, based on all its relevant resolutions including its resolutions 242 (1967) of 22 November 1967 and 338 (1973) of 22 October 1973;

(Well, in the end regardless of everything else, that is the most important and critical need and I think all logical well minded people hope this is the ultimate outcome.)

Will it work? Doubtful unless Hezbollah is disarmed and prevented from re-entering the "southern blue zone". Based on the those playing the role of disarming Hezbollah I say this is only a pause before the next round and the all out offensive and war................How long? I say days rather than weeks based on the points highlighted above.............................

The disarming of Hezbollah would not be an active question had the Israeli government and military achieved it during the wide-window they were given by the Bush Adm. They didn't so we have all these factors in play and will in all probability have a new factors to consider in the coming days when the hostilities start anew...................

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Other blogging on the UN Resolution:

Captain's Quarters

Wizbang

Bottle Bombers Compound: Peroxides & Hydroperoxides

The compound that the British Bottle Bombers planned to use was Peroxide based, just like the British bombers from 7-11:

Peroxides and hydroperoxides are highly reactive materials and may be extremely shock-sensitive explosives. Peroxides can form readily in certain organic materials, especially ethers. Simply moving or just screwing the cap off a bottle that is contaminated with peroxides can lead to an explosion, injury and/or death. Read all of the following information carefully!

Acetone peroxide(C9H18O6), or TATP(triacetone triperoxide), the explosive used in today's London blasts, is a high explosive that can be made from common household items such as drain cleaner(sulfuric acid - H2SO4), hydrogen peroxide(H2O2), and acetone(CH3COCH3), a common organic solvent. It is actually a mixture of stereoisomers. In its finished form it is almost undetectable by sniffer dogs or conventional bomb detection systems.

Peroxide based bombs are also the preferred material for Palestinian suicide bombers:

In the occupied Palestinian territories, you can always tell who the 'engineers' (bomb-makers) are: they're the ones covered in burn marks who might be missing fingers, or even a whole hand, who make bombs for the young suicide bombers sent to kill Israelis by the Islamic militant organisations such as Hamas. And there, as in London, their explosive of choice is triacetone triperoxide or TATP. And TATP is the reason for the engineer's disfigurement.


For the same reasons that Hamas uses TATP to send suicide bombers undetected into Israel, the al-Qaeda network has adopted TATP for its terror missions abroad. The substance was included as the trigger in the shoe bomb that Briton Richard Reid tried to detonate on a flight from Paris to Miami in December 2001, and in the identical device given to Reid's fellow bomber Sajid Badat, who aborted his mission..............

New UN Plan for Lebanon - Who Will Disarm Hezbollah?

The latest from the Israeli - Hezbollah war:

Latest UN Proposal

Latest ceasefire proposal does not call for disarming terror group as precondition to ceasefire; according to deal being formulated, IDF will gradually pull out of Lebanon and will be replaced by an international force including 10,000 French troops.............The proposal will call for Hizbullah’s disarmament in accordance with UN Resolution 1559, but this will not be declared a precondition for reaching a ceasefire............

The UN will not disarm Hezbollah:

The international force will be tasked with preventing the smuggling of Katyusha rockets and arms from Syria and Iran to Lebanon, but it will not disarm Hizbullah.

So if the international force will not be disarming Hezbollah, my question is who will? Without that this is simply a buffer force and is not a solution. Does not sound like Hezbollah is on board yet with the UN proposal:

Hizbullah, for its part, announced that it would not abide by any UN Security Council decision that would not call for the withdrawal of IDF troops from Lebanon.

Hezbollah declares victory:

Hezbollah did not wait for the official UN Security Council announcement on a ceasefire and launched its own media campaign declaring it had 'won the war against Israel.' In the latest video aired on Al-Manar TV the terror group says it “defeated the invincible army” and “July-August 2006: Legend shattered.”

The ground offensive is on hold while the UN deal is worked, but more rockets could trigger the launch of the ground offensive:

Meanwhile the prime minister and Defense Minister Amir Peretz instructed the army to put the next phase of its ground operation in south Lebanon on hold to prevent further escalation and after the White House apparently made it clear that such a move would be detrimental to the diplomatic efforts.

However, a source in Jerusalem said “The international community understands that we cannot accept the continued rocket fire on northern Israel.”

Powerline's Paul Mirengoff and several other bloggers are criticizing the Bush Adm for holding the Israelis back. I'll have to strongly disagree with that logic...........The Bush Adm has done a tremendous job giving Israel time (a month) to destroy Hezbollah. The Israeli strategy was not effective and Bush can't be blamed for that.............................................So Bush is responsible for the ineffective Israeli strategy thus far because the US is now holding Israel back at the 11th hour?

As Glenn Reynolds posted: Bush certainly seems to have hit the sweet spot -- prosecuting the war vigorously enough to anger the antiwar left, but not vigorously enough to please the prowar right........................

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War Analysis via JPost:

But the political echelon thinks differently, and from the first day of this war the politicians, senior officers said, held the IDF back from escalating its offensive and hitting Hizbullah hard. First it was the massive air campaign. Then came the limited, pinpoint ground raids. Only when all that failed did Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cabinet approve a large-scale incursion into Lebanon and the re-creation of the security zone.

This wishy-washy decision-making process cost the IDF lives, according to one senior officer. "A military force always needs to be on the offensive, pushing forward and keeping the enemy on its toes," he said. "When you sit still for too long, you turn into a target and you begin to get hit again and again." ................

Others blogging on this topic:

Captain's Quarters:

In any event, Siniora's sudden pickiness about his protectors shows that he hardly sees an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah as his worst possible scenario. France and Lebanon have both achieved incoherence.

40,000 Israeli Troops Mass - What Next?

Israel has massed 40,000 troops on the border, the security cabinet has approved expanding the war to the Litani River, and there is a new commander over the IDF. It would appear that after a less than success campaign that most experts admit was far short of the required all-out assault required, it is now ready to be launched if that is the call. The military campaign that many thought had begun time after time over the past month, could be on, but it could be a UN pressure move. We won't know probably until tomorrow. Lots happening in the Israeli - Hezbollah war, and no doubt much more will happen at a blistering pace over the next several days and weeks. Here is a recap of happenings over the past few days and hours:

IDF Given Green Light to Invade by Security Cabinet:

The security cabinet, by a vote of 9-0 with three abstentions, approved plans to expand the IDF ground operation to the Litani, which at some points is 30 kilometers from the border, in order to take out the Katyusha launchers that have wreaked havoc on northern Israel over the past month..........

Hezbollah's Nasrallah: We Will Turn Lebanon into graveyard for IDF:

"You won't be able to stay in our land, and if you come in, we'll force you out," said Nasrallah in a recorded speech shown on Hizbullah's television station. "We will turn our precious southern land into a graveyard for the invading Zionists."....................

Hezbollah Denies Iranian Dead Fighting with Hezbollah:

Hizbullah denied late Wednesday that soldiers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were fighting among its forces in south Lebanon. According to Channel 10, Iranian fighters' bodies were discovered in the wake of fierce battles between Hizbullah and IDF forces in south Lebanon.

IDF has pushed 10 miles into Southern Lebanon:

Israeli forces pushed about 10 km (6 miles) into south Lebanon early on Thursday, further forward than they have reached before in the four-week conflict, witnesses said. They said Israeli troops, supported by heavy artillery shelling, were at the outskirts of the village of Dibeen. (Reuters)

Wounded Israeli Solders Evacuated So Far:

Nine soldiers that have been hurt in south Lebanon battles were evacuated to the Rambam Hospital in Haifa so far. Another 21 wounded were evacuated to the Nahariya hospital, four of them are in moderate condition and the others sustained light injuries.

If you have not bookmarked the Jerusalem Post & YNet, both which are Israeli newspapers in English, you should. They have the most current coverage on this conflict.....................

The early Israeli strategy has not been successful which was to use limited ground forces and bomb Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon via an air campaign. It didn't work thus the reason for the new strategy that Israel is broadcasting is ready to be launched. Reports are that the Israeli strategy will be to race to the Litani River and form a controlled border. Then they will work back and encircle and choke off the pockets of Hezbollah and eliminate them. Israel didn't want a massive ground invasion but unfortunately I don't think the UN will solve this and a full force attack will have to occur.

Speaking of the UN resolution options here is the key to any UN plan from the mouth of the Lebanese army, Lebananese Option?:

Early Saturday, a Lebanese Army soldier engaged Israeli commandos that landed for a raid in the southern city of Tyre. The soldier and his armored vehicle were destroyed; six more soldiers died Sunday. "If we have a UN cease-fire, the army is the perfect tool to play the role ... If Hizbullah is disarmed," says a Lebanese general who once held broad intelligence responsibilities, and who asked not to be named. "But if Hizbullah is not disarmed, the army is not capable."

France Caves:

France, supporting Beirut, would like to see Israel begin withdrawing when 15,000 Lebanese troops move south to areas controlled by Hizbollah. The United States and Israel say this cannot happen before a planned strong international force arrives, which France may lead...........

Well they have a nose for a military plan that will fail, do they not........................

Without a strong UN force that can disarm Hezbollah, a UN force is worthless..............It would be a great solution if the Lebanese military could take control of Southern Lebanon, but they can't. Hezbollah controls Lebanese territory not the Lebanese military, which when you go full circle is the whole reason for this war.......................

St. Louis Major Slay: St. Louis Post Dispatch a Chore to Read

A slightly interesting article by Sylvester Brown of the St. Louis Post Dispatch in today's paper, titled "In his blog, Slay puts Post Dispatch on the block". A few of Brown's points:

In his blog entry (www.mayorslay.com) Wednesday, Slay wrote that the purchase of the Post by Iowa-based Lee Enterprises last year might have been a bad investment.

"The P-D's spotty and often inaccurate coverage of local, state, national, and international news has made opening the hometown newspaper a chore fewer and fewer St. Louisans are willing to face each morning," Slay wrote.....................

That's a pretty strong statement.............I'm not a fan or a critic of Slay who like all metro elected officials is a democrat. He seems to be doing a decent job trying to turn a metro area around that was in ruins just a few years ago. He also seems to be more of a moderate from a political perspective than a radical, so I'd give him a thumbs-up rather than a thumbs-down. That said he is right on the money about reading the Post Dispatch, it is a chore that I simply often just skip.....................It's more than a chore, it's down right painful if your a reasonably informed person.............It's simply a bad paper in a one paper town that to top things off, is as liberal leaning in it's coverage as the NYT or the LAT.........What a treat.....................I could imagine a business group arriving in STL and after reading the Post wondering out-loud if they had landed in Berkeley in error....................

When the democratic Mayor of STL says publicly that the Post Dispatch is a colossal failure, you know it's a really bad paper..................Slay's right the paper is a failure both from a reporting and business perspective. It's simply out of touch and has become irrelevant. He is also right that free markets do a very effective job of taking care of such products.................

Brown, the most liberal reporter on the staff if you don't count Eric Mink, is advocating that the Post take off the gloves and go after Slay:

Maybe now, before he and his powerful allies come up with a lucrative, irrefutable proposal, this publication ought to give him something to watch.

This could get interesting and probably is worth pulling up a chair and watching................................

Hezbollah Armed Drone Shot Down by IAF

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YNet has video of the Iranian made drone that Hezbollah sent south being shot down by the IAF. Here............

Previous post on the drone below................................

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Fox is reporting that the IAF shot down a Hezbollah drone aircraft armed with explosives:

Israeli troops shot down an explosive-laden drone aircraft Monday………..The drone, an ababil, was shot down over the Mediterranean Sea near the port city of Haifa………..Officials believe it may have been headed for Tel Aviv……..

Manufacture of the Ababils drone? Iran:

Ababils are Iranian-made aircraft that can be shot from a pneumatic launcher, according to Globalsecurity.org……………

Hezbollah having drones is not a positive development, and there is little doubt now that Iran is giving Hezbollah pretty much every weapon they can and Hezbollah has Iran’s approval to use them……..

Looks more like escalation vs. cease-fire at the moment………

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More on the Ababil drones at Global Security 7/14/06:

Hezbollah's remote-controlled attack on a warship Friday marked a first in the militant group's use of "air power" against its powerful enemy, the technologically advanced Israeli military. The Lebanese militia had launched similar unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, against Israel at least twice before, in November 2004 and April 2005, when they crossed over Israel's northern border on apparent reconnaissance flights, lasting just minutes before they returned to Lebanese territory.

(note: I saw the story run several days ago on the drone attack of an Israeli warship but did not see any confirmation and it appeared to be dismissed)

Hezbollah made or Iranian made?:

I think Hezbollah has people capable of rigging explosives to a drone, but I don't think they could develop a UAV on their own," he said. Global Security's website notes that a leading Arab newspaper, London-based Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat, once reported that Iran sold eight Mohajer-4 drones to Hezbollah.

Iran fields several types of UAVs, including one, called the Ababil, with a 9-foot-long body, capable of flying for 90 minutes, and able to carry a 90-pound payload. Nasrallah was quoted in 2004 as saying Hezbollah's drones could carry 40 kilograms — 90 pounds — of explosives…………..

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The Jerusalem Post is reporting the IDF statement on the drone does not confirm that it was in fact armed with explosives:

"It could be that the UAV was packed with explosives," the officer said. "It is also possible that the UAV was launched to send a message of Hizbullah's capabilities."

The article has more details on how the drone was shot down, and lists it as a Mirsad 1 made by Iran:

The Air Force believes that the drone was the same model used by the Hizbullah two years ago and was a Mirsad 1, a small remote- controlled drone with one engine and a small camera. Made by Iran, it weighs about 80 kilos and with a wingspan of 3 meters it could carry a payload of about 40 kilos……..

Vital Perspective's Recap of the Weekend

Vital Perspective has a very informative and telling recap on the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and the rocket attacks over the past 24 hours....................

Reuters Fake Photo Scandal - How Deep Does It Go?

On the Reuters fake photo scandal, Reuters has admitted the obvious which is that the photo is doctored and fake. They have also fired the Lebanese based photographer who doctored the image. Charles Gordon of LGF has been pretty much the lead in this one and you can see the whole story line unfold here:

It does flow and look a great deal like the Dan Rather 60 Minute "Rathergate Scandal".............

Pajama Media has a very comprehensive list of bloggers covering the story and some good insight as does Wizbang

It's not all that surprising to me that this occurred to be honest................The liberal leaning MSM have always sought out others who share their political convictions when it comes to filling the ranks, whether it be in their news rooms or hiring sub-contractors in foreign lands................This occurred because the MSM is liberally left of center, and in the end has a political agenda that surfaces regardless of how hard they tell themselves and yell out to us that they are "objective" and their person politics do not play a roll in their coverage......................Any logical, objective, plugged-in person knows nothing could be further from the truth.................

The next question in this scandal is how much of Reuters overall work is fake? Is it 5%, 10%, 25%, or greater fake? Reuters has a great deal of work to do, if they ever want to be in a position to try and restore any credibility...................Also we need to know who hired and managed Adnan Hajj, and what were his political activities before and after Reuters hired him. Were there clear signs that Reuters missed signals that should have lead management to question whether Hajj was the activist that he proved to be?

The MSM won't connect the dots on this one, because it requires that they look in the mirror and see themselves................Subscription rates and advertising revenue however don't have such a blind eye.....................

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This cartoon from Cox & Forkum sums the whole thing up well indeed....................

-----------------update 8/7-----------------------

It goes deep.........Reuters is admitting to more fake photos published by them that Hajj took. YNet has the details:

News organization withdraws photograph of Israeli fighter jet, admits image was doctored, fires photographer. Reuters pledges 'tighter editing procedure for images of the Middle East conflict..........

It's going to take more than that.............

Race for Maximum Damage Leading Up-To Cease Fire

Appears that we have entered the all out race to inflict maximum damage prior to a possible cease-fire in the Hezbollah - Israeli conflict. Pajama Media has a good recap from today..................

Look for lots of violence and probably the worst leading up to the cease-fire 11th hour talks...................Hezbollah will no doubt hit with everything they have......the question will be how strong will the Israeli response be and what exactly will it be? The other big question for me is whether they will agree to a cease-fire and if not what does that tell us about the party that is pushing hardest for no cease-fire if that does occur.....................

Battle for Tyre Reported to be Under-Way

Greg Palkot of Fox News is reporting on Fox News that there is major activity in Tyre, Lebanon and it appears that an Israeli ground force movement could be in it's early stages. A huge number of locals have left Tyre over the past few days per The Australian on 8/2:

TENS of thousands of people fled southern Lebanon in a frantic exodus yesterday, fearing a massive invasion by Israeli troops......................Many hilltop villages south of the port city of Tyre were left abandoned yesterday, with cattle and donkeys wandering the empty streets and pet dogs abandoned...........

So who is left? Hezbollah of course:

In Qana, 11km from the Israeli border, a militant from Amal, an armed Shia group aligned to Hezbollah, claimed the battle was about to enter a new phase that would humiliate Israel. "Until now they have tried to attack us from the air and the sea without putting many soldiers in Lebanon, but now they are coming here," Bassim Bourji told The Australian.....................Even in the large port city of Sidon, placards at major intersections declared: "Take note, Muslim armies - the nose of the Jew is being rubbed in the dirt in a fight with just one faction of Lebanon."

Tyre has been the base for daily Katyusha rocket launches and is just out of reach for the IAF to hit them prior to the guerillas fading away, per the BBC:

For its part, Israel's adversary, Hezbollah, fires daily salvoes of Katyusha rockets from Tyre, leaving undulating trails of white smoke from the citrus and banana groves beyond the city's southern outskirts........................But Israel's military response around Tyre shows its fundamental weakness when dealing with a guerrilla army drawn from the indigenous population of southern Lebanon. It can take up to 12 minutes for Israeli aircraft to come and drop their 1,000-pounders on the launch sites - plenty of time for the highly-mobile rocket crews to pack up and escape................

We will know more in the AM reference to what is happening in Tyre.............

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Fox is reporting that Israeli commandos are reported to have landed in Tyre. Sounds like things are escalating................

If Israel is sending forces into Tyre, they are going "all out'. Tyre has a less than favorable place in the memory for the IDF and Israel when it comes to Lebanese military operations, per CNN (1997):

Lebanese guerrillas and soldiers ambushed a team of Israeli commandos conducting an air-and-sea raid in southern Lebanon early Friday, killing at least 11 Israeli troops in a three-hour firefight, officials in both countries said.......................Gruesome scene: By dawn, the fighting in southern Lebanon had subsided but smoke from smoldering bushes hung over the battlefield. Guerrillas picked their way through bodies and military gear abandoned by the Israelis in their retreat. One guerrilla packed a severed leg, still wearing a black military boot, into a cardboard box. A Lebanese soldier retrieved the crushed skull of a commando............

You don't go back to such a place at a time like this, unless you intend to hit it with all you have and win decisively, one would think...................

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The first press update on Tyre per Reuters:

TYRE, Lebanon (Reuters) - Helicopter-borne Israeli commandos landed near the southern Lebanese city of Tyre and clashed with Hizbollah guerrillas on Saturday, Lebanese security sources said......................Hizbollah said in a statement one Israeli soldier was killed and many were wounded in the attack. The Israeli army had no immediate comment on the operation or any casualties..............Israeli helicopter fire hit a Lebanese army troop carrier during the raid and Lebanese troops fired anti-aircraft guns at Israeli aircraft, the security sources added. Five Lebanese, including an army soldier, were killed in the violence, the sources said........................................

Not much in the report and no clear picture as of yet where this is going.................

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As sketchy as earlier reports from Reuters, the Tyre report per the Jerusalem Post is also a bit short:

IAF warplanes bombarded south Beirut before dawn Saturday. Hizbullah's Al- Manar television reported explosions in the city's Shiite neighborhoods. Helicopters fired missiles at Hizbullah targets in the southern city of Tyre.............................

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Fighting in Tyre "door to door" per Fox:

Lebanese military officials said the commandos landed near an orange grove, cut through a barbed wire fence and attacked the second floor of an apartment building.
A resident said he saw the commandos attack the building. "They all had beards. I thought maybe they were Hezbollah," said 18-year-old Qassem Aad, who lives nearby........

Hezbollah Infrastructure in Ruins

Michael Trotten guest blogging at Instapundit has two good posts up covering the Hezbollah – Israeli conflict. First an aerial photo of the Hezbollah HQ area in the Haret Hreik neighborhood:

photos

Massive damage to the Hezbollah infrastructure…………………

Second his post on the danger Hezbollah faces in not being able to deliver on their promises to their Shiite followers in terms of services and economic necessities. Real fear that their followers will deem the cost of the war too high that Hezbollah started by kidnapping the Israeli soldiers, if they can not delivery services after the conflict. Via Al Bawaba:

Even now, despite the united front exhibited by Lebanon's political parties following the Qana carnage, concerns are being voiced by Lebanese Shiites over Hizbullah's foresight regarding ensuing economic and social consequences when it decided to capture two Israeli soldiers. These voices have also expressed concern over how Nasrallah is to fulfill his vow to refugees for a quick return to their homes…………………….In sum, after the current Lebanon war has ended, a long period of rehabilitation will be required to get Lebanon back on its feet. The effort will require significant international action, whereas Hizbullah may be left with a relatively negligible role in the process.

There are many and multiple measure that will need to be taken when this is all over, to see what the exact damage to Hezbollah has been………………………

Israeli - Hezballah Cease Fire on Monday 8/7?

Per Haaretz, looks like the cease fire will happen on Monday 8/7. Per US State Dept spokesman Sean McComack:

"We certainly would hope that we could achieve something by Friday, but if not, we are prepared ... to work all through the weekend if necessary to get something done, because we are working on an urgent basis to bring about an end to the fighting in such a way that is lasting and durable," he said.........................

Look for a Monday "Cease-Fire" unless serious mop-up time is needed by the IDF.....

---------------------update 8/4-----------------------------

Rich Lowry at NRO’s The Corner, has a projected cease fire timeline for the Hezbollah – Israeli conflict up derived from the sources he has been speaking with. Basically it’s as follows:

- UN cease fire proposal on Monday
- Actual cease fire mid-week with call for international peace keeping force
- France is playing a major role in the ceasefire negotiations
- 9,000 – 10,000 UN troops
- Lebanese military is a shell and not capable of playing any role
- High fear that the Lebanese government will collapse
- If Hezbollah hits Tel Aviv, all bets off and all out war

Hezbollah & Iranian Leaders Sound Like "Bagdad Bob"

Today, Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, sounded a lot like Bagdad Bob in his taped statement, you can see @ Nasrallah. First saber rattling:

Hassan Nasrallah threatened to bomb Tel Aviv during a TV address Thursday night, should Israel attack in Beirut. "If you indeed do this, I say this clearly. I won't use terms I used up to now, past Haifa, but I will say clearly and in a way that is not open to interpretation: If you bomb our capital we'll bomb your capital. We'll bomb Tel Aviv and we can do this."...........................

Then theatrical PR attacks against Israeli PM Olmert:

Nasrallah branded Prime Minister Ehud Olmert a "fool" for "declaring a victory too early." "He wants to look like (Ariel) Sharon, (Yitzhak) Rabin, and (Menachem) Begin. Ask him where the accomplishments are that he promised you," Nasrallah said. He added that he was following Israeli analysts...............

Then against the Mossad:

Nasrallah mocked the commando raid in Baalbek: "There were two landings near Baalbek and not in the heart of Baalbek. They stormed a hospital and threw a grenade. Pay attention to the great gain, to search for injured fighters who they didn’t capture during the battle. They weren't there, they kidnapped five civilians and they are hostages. This is intelligence, this is the Mossad?" ...............

Sounds like a very defeated leader............Nasrallah has been on the tube via taped PR announcements almost as much as Bagdad Bob was:

This was Nasrallah's eighth television appearance since the kidnapping of soldiers on the northern border............

(He is attempting to get a message out "hard").....

After Nasrallah's threat against resumings bombing the Hezbollah controlled suburbs, Israel answered per the Jerusalem Post:

The IAF resumed its attacks on southern Beirut on Thursday night with strikes against Hizbullah and Hamas offices in the Dahiya neighborhood, as well as the home of a senior Hizbullah operative.............
(reports this PM of massive bombs hitting Hizbullah locations in Beirut per Fox)

Also today Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for a cease-fire, and also is starting to sound like Bagdad Bob, only a much crazier Bagdad Bob:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called for a cease-fire in Lebanon and lambasted U.S. policy in the Middle East on Wednesday, saying the United States wanted to "recarve the map" of the region with Israel's help............."We are calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon. We are against the war, against occupation," ........

Ahmadinejad is getting pretty spooked as he watches his Hezbollah front line offensive force melt away, and has America on his mind:

" The United States wants to recarve the map of the Middle East, acting through Israel. The United States is conducting its international policy through deceit, money and treachery," he said.............."If they attack Iran, they know our country, our people," he said. "They should think better before doing that. We can defend ourselves. Iran is a great world power which can protect its interests and its integrity. Only silly people would think about attacking Iran."...........

Ahmadinejad & Nasrallah are cracking hard under the reality of watching the liquidation of their terrorist power-base.....................Sounds like the knock-out could occur over the next two days and if Israel is as close to achieving that as it appears, they will get more days if needed...........

---------------update-----------------------------

Others blogging on this topic:

Kim Priestap has a post up on the topic @ Wizbang

Check-out the Atlas post with a podcast offering @ Atlus Shrugs with Caroline Glick, it's good and very worth a visit..........

Wife Burns Sleeping Husband with Cooking Oil

Here is a painful story, via the AP:

A woman fled with her two children after severely burning her husband with hot cooking oil as he slept, authorities said……… Edna May Sanders turned on the stove Friday and heated about two quarts of oil, waited until the grease reached a simmer and then poured the oil over her husband, covering his head, face, chest and arms…………

Per the Investigator:

"I've been in law enforcement 14 years and that was the worse thing I've ever seen," sheriff's investigator Ricky Fayard said. "His skin was dripping off of him."…….

No report on why she did such a thing but it’s probably a good bet that there has been some type of domestic abuse and some serious issues in this relationship. Must have been pretty bad to result in such a thing……………….

What a rude and painful awakening. I’m thinking that Mr. Sanders is probably going to have some difficulty letting himself go to sleep over the next several days and weeks…………..

Hezbollah Weapon of Choice: Antitank Missiles

The Jerusalem Post has an article up covering the preferred weapon of choice by Hezbollah, and their strategy of deploying it:

Over the last two weeks, the tactic used by many of the Hezbollah teams has been to avoid close-range combat, where IDF soldiers' high level of training gives them the upper hand. Instead, the Hezbollah men have been moving to positions high above villages and continuing to fire missiles at the IDF forces. Large stores of missiles were prepared in the hills in advance, for this eventuality……………..

The term "antitank" is misleading; the missiles were originally designed to be used against tanks, but the IDF's Merkava tanks and upgraded armored fighting vehicles are capable of withstanding most missiles in Hizbullah's arsenal. But Hizbullah isn't using them only against tanks. The range of these missiles - up to three kilometers - and the force of their explosive charges make them ideal for attacking groups of soldiers and IDF positions from afar.

I can see how such a weapon would be effective, especially for a guerilla force that hides in the shadows and seeks to ambush. Also, such a weapon does not require a great deal of marksmanship. A force like Hezbollah certainly has lots of eager and radical volunteers, but many of those volunteers lack a great deal of military training or skill. A "just get it close" type weapon certainly would be of high value and could do some real damage. From a skill level Hezbollah is not in the same league as the IDF, but a weapon like this can close the gap some what:

Col. Ofek Buchris, a former Golani battalion commander and the officer now in charge of offensive operations on the northern front, said this week, "Hizbullah aren't as good soldiers as people have been saying, they don't have good combat skills. In shooting battles, we beat them every time. What they do have is good antitank capabilities……………………

Hezbollah Hospitals Aren't Exactly What They Appear

Some interesting revelations about that "hospital" that the IDF commandos launched their operation around and in last night. Per Excite News, via Big Lizards

The hospital, which residents said is financed by an Iranian charity that is close to Hezbollah, was empty of patients at the time of the raid, the guerrilla group said. Olmert said that, although the scene of the fighting is called a hospital, "there are no patients there and there is no hospital, this is a base of the Hezbollah in disguise."

So lets see, we have a hospital in Baalbenk, built by Iran for Hezbollah interests and in the thick of this war, it's empty? Sure it was a hospital, riiiiiiiight.......

Not too much of a stretch to predict that as the facades of other Iranian built charities and facilities in Lebanon are peeled off by the IDF, they will not be what they appear but rather the bunker for weapons of terrorism............................................

----------------------update----------------------------

Greta is covering the "shell hospital" story right now with Lt Col Bill Cowan on Fox. Cowan is stating that Baalbek is the heart and soul of Hezbollah and is the brain and HQ of Hezbollah in Lebanon. He said the IDF should have done more damage to it, but it is the right target in his mind. I agree and I'm going to guess more is being done there than is being reported as of now...........

---------------------update------------------------------

Vital Perspective has video of the Baalbek raid...........

The Major Israeli Offensive Has Begun

The major offensive has begun in Lebanon and the Israelis appear to have launched the battle to cripple Hizbullah. Reports that a military operation has been launched in Bekaa. Rightwing Nuthouse has a good summary up including this info from the Jerusalem Post:

Earlier, fighter-bombers struck deep inside the country, hitting the Hizbullah stronghold of Hermel, some 120 km. north of the border in the Bekaa Valley, witnesses said. Planes also hit Hizbullah fighters battling with soldiers near the border, as the gunmen fired mortars into Israel...............

Bekaa is the cradle of everything Hizbullah. Per Haaretz:

Baalbek, an ancient city with spectacular Roman ruins, was a former Syrian army headquarters and included the barracks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards when they trained Hezbollah guerrillas there in the 1980s.............

I've consistently posted below ( here & here) that I believe that the IDF has a plan and when it's launched it will be lights-out for Hizbullah, and that plan certainly has just been put into play. Hizbullah has no chance against the IDF when they hatch the real offensive and what better place to do so than Baalbek? Time will tell but for all those who were buying into the line that Hizbullah was holding their own against Israel, I think a much clearer message is about to be revealed that can not be misunderstood or misinterpreted...........................

----------------Update------------------------------

Others blogging on this topic I found interesting:

Captains Quarters has a wrap on what is at stake, and praise for the job the Bush Adm is doing by giving the Israelis the time they need to get this job done:

Israel must win this battle. The US has to keep running interference until Syria and Iran stop funding Hezbollah and the Lebanese government disarms the terrorists. We have to show the resolve necessary to stop accepting hudna and start winning this war. Thus far, the White House has done a masterful job of allowing Israel the space to engage the terrorists and confound their sponsors. Until the terrorists agree to lay down their weapons and stop provoking regional wars, the White House should stick to its guns....................

When all this is over and the hard analysis is done, I think the criticism that Sec. Rice has received will be very off the mark. She and the Administration have done a Herculean job of standing straight and giving the Israelis time, pushing back the usual suspects, I think........................