Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Approval Numbers For Filibuster Compromise Senators

The Senator approval ratings from yesterday are interesting. I broke them out by the Fili Compromise group of 14 and compared them that way to their approve rate from 5/5/205:

Senate Poll Numbers


McCain 67% (-2%)
Snowe unchanged @ (71%)
Collins unchanged @ (71%)
Dewine 44% (-1%)
Chafee 53% (+5%)
Graham 53% (-1%)
Warner 53% (-2%)
Average: - 1%


Byrd 63% (+7%)
Pryor 58% (+2%)
Salazar 55% (+2%)
Lieberman 65% (+4%)
Inouye 70% (+2%)
Landrieu 54% (+4%)
Nelson 64% (+2%)
Average: +3.3%

The obvious thing is that Democrats went up in their poll numbers considerably compared to Republicans. On 5/5 the seven Dems had a collective approval average of 58% and it went up 61%. On 5/5 the seven Republicans had a 59% approval average and it went down to 58%.

The biggest winners were Chafee of RI +5%, Byrd of WV +7%, and I think Landrieu of LA with a 4% bump that took her up from the mid-mark of 50%. That’s the other thing I see is that all with the exception of Dewine, and Landrieu when she voted, had pretty solid approval numbers going into the compromise. Perhaps that is the main reason they felt they could compromise because they had pretty good poll numbers but so do lots of other Senators and they did not join the group. I don't know what the story was with Dewine. Seems a politican at 45% should not be taking chances, but he did and we shall see how it plays out.

The other thing I saw was that Red State Democrats certainly benefited the most. Aside from Lieberman (CT) ( who is a true centralist in my opinion ) and Inouye (HI), all five of the other Senators are from pretty strong Red States.

Conversely Snow, Collins, and Chafee are Blue state Republicans and they either stayed the same (Snowe & Collins) or went up by +5% (Chafee). What does that tell us?

I’m not sure but I think it tells us that no one on the compromise team really got hurt and most had significant gains. Especially a Senator who is from the opposing party from the party that won their state in the Presidential election in 2004. Seems that being viewed as a centralist in that situation is a positive poll mover. Interesting………….