Tuesday, April 04, 2006

No Dem Shift in Missouri's First 2006 Bell Weather Race

The first 2006 election in Missouri that was in a district being watch for a possible swing towards the Dem party and rejection of the Republican party occurred this evening in the Lincoln - St. Charles county election for state senator. The race was between Scott Rupp the Republican and Wayne Henke the Dem (both state reps). Per the Post ( who endorsed the Dem as always ), the shift did not occur:

Republican Rep. Scott Rupp was leading Democratic Rep. Wayne Henke in a special election today to fill a vacant Senate seat on the outskirts of St. Louis. With nearly 90 percent of the precincts reporting, Rupp had more than 55 percent of the votes counted —16,640 votes to Henke’s 13,248 , according to the secretary of state’s office.

So much for the "shift" that the left in the MSM and the Dem party have been preaching and cheering for. If the Bell Weather state of Missouri is any indication, a border area of the blue dot that is STL metro did not shift. That would seem to be bad news for the DNC in the 2006 mid-terms, Clair McCaskill in particular who is running against Republican incumbent Jim Talent. The district that this race was held in is an important district for any Democrat hoping to win on a state-wide level in Missouri. It's a historically Republican district but one that they would need a good showing in to win.......................

In the 2004 election the second district went as follows on the Governor’s race:

Blunt 56% vs. McCaskill 43%
Statewide: Blunt 54% vs. McCaskill 46%

Blunt’s margin of victory was 13% in November 04’ and the Republican candidate won yesterday’s race by 8%. A five point decrease in the margin with the margin remaining a healthy 8% is not what the Dem state party was looking for, especially considering that Henke ran as a moderate Dem….....They were looking for a win in this race and if not then closing the margin to a 1-2% gap….Didn’t happen…………………………..It’s the first race in 2006 and can’t forecast what will happen in November, but there was no collapse of Republican support in a metro boarding district that McCaskill needs a good showing in and votes from…………….

_______Update 4/5/06__________

The offical results per the Post Dispatch:

Scott Repp (Rep): 18,289 votes (53.7%)
Wayne Henke (Dem): 15,769 votes (46.3%)