Missouri Senate Race: McCaskill 49% vs.Talent 43%

Jo Mannis and the St. Louis Post Dispatch have a new poll up on the Talent-McCaskill race that shows McCaskill up 49% to 43%:

Among 800 likely voters polled last week, 49 percent supported state Auditor Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, in her quest to replace U.S. Sen. Jim Talent, R-Mo. That compared to 43 percent who favored retaining Talent, who has been in office since 2003. The remaining 8 percent were undecided...............

The 8% undecided and 3.5% margin of error makes this race pretty much a dead heat at this point. The campaigns are just beginning to gear-up and will probably start in earnest in August.

Mannis frames the race up as one focused on "state issues" based on the info learned from the poll, which seems like a strange finding for a Senate election. Per Mannis:

Missouri voters say they're willing to spend more tax dollars to restore Medicaid coverage to 90,000 residents, and strongly support increasing the state's minimum wage for workers. They also continue to overwhelmingly embrace a ballot proposal that would protect many forms of embryonic stem cell research, and one to increase the state's tobacco taxes.

But they disagree with the Republican-led Legislature's recent decisions to eliminate campaign donation limits and a ballot proposal that would require most voters this fall to show government-issued photo identification before they vote...................

Seems logical if it were a Governor or state Rep or Senator race, but this is a US Senator race...............State issues are the key? I find that a strange frame.........

I'm not going to say the poll is wrong but there are some eyebrow raisers right off the bat:

- If a majority of those polled were against the voter ID bill, that tells us that the sample probably had too high of a number of solid democratic voters to be a true reflection of how this race is shaping up. Polling has shown that the voter ID bill had a majority of support after being announced.

- The poll is 36% Dem - 36% Rep - 28% Independent; The Independent percentage seems high to me.

- Region needs much more definition for me on what the break-out is by region area. The north STL country area is strongly democrat and west county is overwhelmingly republican. It would be beneficial to see the STL county break-out to get a real sense of how on target this poll is.

- The biggest indicator that the sample is too heavily dem voters and particularly Independent Dem voters is that Kerry would beat Bush 48% to 40% today.

Again I think the poll population looks a bit suspect but if it is correct I think Talent is still in good shape. He has done a good job and made no mistakes. The Mannis article frames him up on the minority of "all' issues polled however. Here are the issues that defined Talent being on the "wrong side of State issues per the poll:

1) Restore Medicaid Coverage for 90,000 Missouri Residents: 66% vs. 23%

2) Strongly Support Increasing the State's Minimum Wage for Workers: 66% vs. 21%

3) Overwhelmingly Embrace Many Forms of Embryonic Stem Cell Research: 62% vs. 35%

4) Increase Tobacco Taxes: 62% vs. 30%

(Education was #1, Avoiding Tax Increases was #3, so things are not really being tied together real well with the poll - its a bit "off")

The Pollster summed the "state issues" up as:

Pollster Del Ali is head of the Maryland-based firm Research 2000, which conducts polls for a number of media outlets. He said McCaskill is benefiting, at the moment, from the fact that on all the issues mentioned above, she "is on the side of the majority." Talent sides with the poll's minority in opposition to the proposal that would protect all forms of stem cell research in the state allowed under federal law. Talent has taken no position on the other ballot measures or the Legislature's actions.................

Well probably because they are state issues-measures and not Senate measures. Perhaps National and International issues should have had more poll-time in a Senate poll......................Funny, it looks like the poll is telling us that on state issues McCaskill is with the majority and as a state Auditor you would hope-expect that..................McCaskill sounds like a good "state" candidate although she lost the Governor election to Blunt in 2004.........

That will be the deciding factor..............Talent is a Senator and has done a good job, McCaskill is a state level official who has done a good job at the state level. Talent has national experience and presence, McCaskill does not............McCaskill's only hope will probably be that Talent gets swept up in a "Republican Replacement Wave".............

I don't think the replacement wave will happen but Missouri will once again be the bell weather state for this election. If Talent does fall behind once the election starts in earnest then that will be bad news for republicans on a nation-wide level. If he pulls ahead when the campaign begins and wins then the republicans should hold on to both the House & Senate................

Mannies & Del Ali warn us that a political race might break out soon and warns that Talent could go negative:

But Talent has the cash. His last campaign report, filed in April, showed him with more than twice as much in the bank as McCaskill. President George W. Bush is traveling to St. Louis on Wednesday to help Talent raise even more. Ali said that a financial advantage could help Talent build up his image, while damaging McCaskill's. But he added that voters' stances on the issues could be a trump card.

Speaking of Bush, he had a 39% vs. 60% favorable in the poll and he is coming to STL next week. That tells us that there are other polls out there that tell much different results...................

Stay tuned to Missouri's Bell-Weather Senator race............................

---------------------update---------------------------------

Another reason I think this poll may have some potential problems with the sample is the latest Rasmussen poll shows Bush at 44% vs. 55%, via Wizbang

So nationally Bush approval is at 44% but in Missouri he is at 39%? Again I think there might be some sample issues.................

-------------update-----------------------

Wall Street & Zogby show Talent up 49% vs. 43%, just the opposite of the STL poll..................

Jo Mannies is back-peddling all over herself to the point of falling down over the Post Dispatch Talent-McCaskill poll:

As political activists mull over the results of the latest Research 2000 poll, conducted last week for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV, some are likely aware of a different set of numbers released Friday by Zogby International and the Wall Street Journal..........................

Well Jo, yes we sniffed out the bad sample in the STL Post poll right away................The Kerry over Bush question was the dead give away.......................

Bottom line is it's either dead even or Talent up 49% vs. 43% like six months ago. I say it's more like it was six months ago ..................

Can the Post get this right and start reporting things square? This is really embarrassing for the Post.........."sad"..........................I think this is the most embarrassing moment for the Post in recent times..............pathetic......................

One would think that advertising and subscription numbers are in the balance.............................

The "poll" is being discussed on the Political Fix Blog

How can a newspaper get polling results that send up so many red flags, and still run with it? I simply do not understand how that can occur.............